MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ced088597507ba8386faed9e282c2520b107dbe893fc226cbcf8dc229bfd473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b8f…449bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 3,199$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.38 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 2,223$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 2,101$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.34 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 2,050$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Los Angeles Angels | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.21 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 1,886$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.78 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 1,228$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 17c | 1,045$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 840$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 669.58$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 570.21$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.13 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 526.41$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 375$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 353$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.33 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 307.07$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 291.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…4e98backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 280.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…5a65backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 245.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 207.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 187$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 171$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 170.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 164.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 144.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 133$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 129$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 118$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 117.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Los Angeles Angels | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 89.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 74.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 34c | 73.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 59.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 46.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 42.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 31.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 27.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 25.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 24.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.