MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0753ed7979475203d10844e4a11d6a6666b3824448c95175de2884da93f24fd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 25c | 3,859$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.14 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 57c | 2,479$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.09 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 1,414$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.69 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 59c | 1,257$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.73 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 44c | 818.18$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 479.42$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.12 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 74c | 351.58$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 1,734 | 50.4%874 W · 860 L | +57.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 323 | 66.3%214 W · 109 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 237.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 63c | 162$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 759 | 44.4%337 W · 422 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 76c | 134.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 122$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 120.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 41c | 105.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…c845backed Under | 60c | 71.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 56.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 435 | 49.2%214 W · 221 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Under | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 36.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Over | 42c | 35.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +11.4wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 44c | 30.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 56c | 26.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 54c | 22.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Under | 74c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 576 | 58.3%336 W · 240 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5,235 | 56.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L | +130.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 55c | 19.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 71c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.