NFL · resolved market
LAC vs. HOU: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8232268dedd534ac75f7930491162809966517c0492835af7db489351228616b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Under | 49c | 26,700$13,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,684 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 17,850$9,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,103.5 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Over | 52c | 6,700$3,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,484 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Over | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 56c | 1,033$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Under | 49c | 570$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 3c | 510.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 450.38$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.33 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 52c | 447.69$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 52c | 421.46$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 49c | 288$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 285.41$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 44c | 238.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 9c | 209$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 208.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 166.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 44c | 125.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 100.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 49c | 44.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 55c | 35.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 44c | 31.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 53c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 56c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…3172backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LAC vs. HOU: O/U 37.5this page
- Chargers vs. TexansChargers won
- LAC vs. HOU: O/U 36.5Under won
- LAC vs. HOU: O/U 38.5Under won
- Spread: LAC (-1.5)LAC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.