NFL · resolved market
LAC vs. HOU: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e4442373bf10b8f6c5a27a6b067f1379a608186fadffd4fd8bd355108ec5d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 54c | 192,624$103,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,256.48 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 46c | 142,724$66,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,469.34 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 47c | 8,000$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,280 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…55d6backed Under | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 5,452$2,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,923.08 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Under | 46c | 5,139$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 4,850$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.82 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 47c | 4,191$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.46 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 4,095$2,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190.72 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Over | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 45c | 3,015$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.25 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,493$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.24 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…11a9backed Under | 45c | 2,187$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 54c | 1,600$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.99 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 1,542$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.49 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed Over | 77c | 1,308$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 46c | 1,022$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 46c | 869.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 725.32$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.41 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 19c | 600$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…04b8backed Over | 53c | 555.55$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fc…9d95backed Under | 46c | 419.13$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 47c | 329.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba4…f918backed Under | 26c | 306.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 26c | 306.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked Over | 56c | 267.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Under | 48c | 247.51$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…dd03backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Under | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 163.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Under | 47c | 162.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 25c | 138$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…776fbacked Over | 74c | 134.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 47c | 134$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 46c | 130.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed Under | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715a…a5d1backed Over | 75c | 96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c6f3backed Over | 56c | 87.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 47c | 85.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 53c | 69.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 40c | 53.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc5…5f83backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e1…0a28backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9979…c5bdbacked Over | 54c | 49.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 44c | 33.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 47c | 30.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 46c | 28.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…c601backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 45c | 27.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Under | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 48c | 21.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LAC vs. HOU: O/U 36.5this page
- Chargers vs. TexansChargers won
- LAC vs. HOU: O/U 37.5Under won
- LAC vs. HOU: O/U 38.5Under won
- Spread: LAC (-1.5)LAC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.