Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82339246c72ec7c6e3a03621b45fb6bf27db01e255048083694378d88d46fae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 388.15$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 66c | 210.86$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 36c | 146.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 108.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…8579backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked Yes | 39c | 84.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 61c | 82.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 58c | 82.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a4…b64dbacked Yes | 31c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 26c | 64.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,847 | 27.6%509 W · 1,338 L | +24.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 41c | 62.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 43c | 61.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 47.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 45.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 41.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 36c | 36.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 32.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 45c | 30.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 25.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -22.0wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 23-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on August 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.