South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82410fed8f3ec89de6be8b9906746eafa73bf7bfa88918795a1117707f54f248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 46c | 874.45$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.46 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 58c | 523.09$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.28 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 13c | 522.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 11c | 501.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 43c | 475.45$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.69 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 52c | 461.38$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.29 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…f637backed Yes | 51c | 460.43$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 32c | 406.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.25 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 29c | 369.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 32c | 362$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 61c | 336.54$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.81 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 60c | 310$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes | 32c | 279.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9a…3f4bbacked No | 74c | 216.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 60c | 214.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…b686backed No | 8c | 211.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 32c | 203.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed No | 50c | 200.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 65c | 199.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.49 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…1080backed Yes | 31c | 152.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 25c | 149.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 133.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 70c | 130.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 52c | 127.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 37c | 126$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 120.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 118.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 25c | 112.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…93b4backed Yes | 77c | 104.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 75c | 102.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Yes | 73c | 102.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 98.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 24c | 96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…5269backed Yes | 33c | 92.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 80.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed No | 31c | 70.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 41c | 69.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…3e9cbacked Yes | 66c | 69.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…651bbacked Yes | 42c | 62.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…e47bbacked Yes | 68c | 61.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 20c | 57.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 44c | 55.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 59c | 54.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 62c | 53.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Yes | 47c | 52.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…e173backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 77c | 50.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 68c | 50.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…f954backed Yes | 31c | 41.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 58c | 41.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…871abacked Yes | 30c | 40.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 40c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Yes | 63c | 39.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 29c | 38.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…7720backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66e…bffdbacked Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Yes | 46c | 29.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 70c | 26.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yes | 45c | 26.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…aadfbacked Yes | 66c | 25.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…da98backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 69c | 21.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…c6febacked Yes | 77c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…2111backed Yes | 77c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC end in a draw?this page
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.