TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Elias Ymer vs Coleman Wong

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Elias Ymerof Elias Ymer, Coleman Wong
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56fc…733ebacked Coleman Wong70c15,329$10,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,789.211053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Coleman Wong69c14,250$9,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,861.2748851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Coleman Wong72c13,943$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00027460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Elias Ymer59c11,399$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,648.486,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b4…13c9backed Elias Ymer59c10,745$6,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,405.453647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dc8…da92backed Elias Ymer57c10,526$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,526.321681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick63cpaid+26.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Elias Ymer41c9,466$3,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,613.852,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Coleman Wong74c8,987$6,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,623.56070%42 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Elias Ymer27c5,905$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,291.096,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Coleman Wong48c4,398$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.741,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Elias Ymer35c4,237$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,763.182,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4b…f7d2backed Coleman Wong2c4,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cef…71b4backed Elias Ymer45c3,362$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.8220045%90 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Elias Ymer36c3,292$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.9781349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Coleman Wong60c3,219$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.461,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Coleman Wong64c2,852$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.912,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcf…75c6backed Elias Ymer36c2,553$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.216841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Elias Ymer38c2,535$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.643,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0e…1f6cbacked Elias Ymer35c2,465$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5864…48c0backed Elias Ymer38c2,307$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Coleman Wong50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Coleman Wong67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3405644.6%25 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd35…17debacked Elias Ymer36c1,997$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Coleman Wong69c1,721$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.413948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Elias Ymer40c1,637$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.422,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Coleman Wong50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.866949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed Elias Ymer33c1,207$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.099135.2%32 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Coleman Wong49c1,124$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.864837.5%18 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Coleman Wong51c1,093$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.992,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Elias Ymer61c1,057$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9441645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Coleman Wong46c937.31$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.487,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44e5…3c33backed Coleman Wong48c879.71$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.261963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc400…f991backed Elias Ymer58c864.62$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.623354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Coleman Wong58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006934.8%24 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Elias Ymer36c826.91$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.4328444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Coleman Wong61c818.85$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.538739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Elias Ymer29c772.41$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.4146030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Elias Ymer32c733$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.531,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cee…3f91backed Elias Ymer32c718.63$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.679824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Coleman Wong47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30098240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Elias Ymer58c635.12$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.863247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Elias Ymer35c633.99$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.881,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Coleman Wong59c601$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.3823847.1%112 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Coleman Wong54c553.12$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.211,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Elias Ymer40c510.33$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.616,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4720…007bbacked Elias Ymer61c501$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.99250%46 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Coleman Wong53c485.65$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.526,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Elias Ymer28c483$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.7621338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Coleman Wong25c480$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Coleman Wong52c472.6$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.9730530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Coleman Wong66c454.55$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30052460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Coleman Wong50c443.21$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,02650%513 W · 513 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Elias Ymer47c424.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.451,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Elias Ymer26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.621,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Elias Ymer26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.621,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Elias Ymer38c377$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.3797046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Elias Ymer55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6450364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7693…ba75backed Elias Ymer28c350$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2525425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Elias Ymer39c307.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.6912951.9%67 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Elias Ymer26c306.25$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.81,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Elias Ymer26c300$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22240744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Elias Ymer32c284.33$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.421,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…4392backed Elias Ymer29c273.04$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.815250%26 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Coleman Wong45c267.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12018932.3%61 W · 128 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb742…af56backed Coleman Wong66c265.15$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Elias Ymer36c263.71$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.424,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Elias Ymer27c259.26$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2695846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Elias Ymer33c259.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.1927935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Coleman Wong73c256.52$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2648552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ceb…68e3backed Elias Ymer59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.248056.3%45 W · 35 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Coleman Wong40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031039.4%122 W · 188 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Coleman Wong70c250$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1757,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Coleman Wong40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Elias Ymer40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15021346.5%99 W · 114 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Elias Ymer61c246.65$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6584963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Elias Ymer40c243$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8437342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcf…ef2fbacked Elias Ymer32c215.32$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.449755.7%54 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Elias Ymer26c210$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.446649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Elias Ymer26c202.7$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Coleman Wong74c202.7$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15084968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Elias Ymer50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10060943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Elias Ymer52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Elias Ymer34c187.68$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.258,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Coleman Wong58c186.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0212952.7%68 W · 61 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f90…a473backed Coleman Wong71c176.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1812755.9%71 W · 56 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63d…a59bbacked Elias Ymer59c163.42$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x722a…d6edbacked Coleman Wong65c151.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.496864.7%44 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Elias Ymer56c147.93$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0935944.8%161 W · 198 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Elias Ymer29c140.84$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10042046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Coleman Wong73c140$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.258753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e73…119dbacked Elias Ymer56c134.36$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Elias Ymer26c133$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.138133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac2…6deebacked Coleman Wong61c131.09$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Coleman Wong72c129.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.151,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Elias Ymer55c127.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.271,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Coleman Wong68c125$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8564537.2%240 W · 405 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387e…ca5dbacked Coleman Wong42c122.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5910046%46 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Coleman Wong61c116.39$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7165652.1%342 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Coleman Wong72c116$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4769249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Elias Ymer61c109.09$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.784,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.