Fifa International · resolved market
Will Nigeria vs. Mozambique end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824687f8f3ca353151f8a44c7ccb172c0d9dff64b89595f6e424ca805439ed02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 8c | 6,405$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.38 | 320 | 31.6%101 W · 219 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 2c | 4,021$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 9c | 3,175$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,505$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 18c | 1,619$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.45 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 18c | 1,089$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 416.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 5c | 370$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 17c | 351$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…5263backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 9c | 244$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 146 | 20.5%30 W · 116 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f6…05bfbacked Yes | 19c | 190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 21c | 135.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 18c | 127.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…f74fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…d978backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…07bbbacked Yes | 17c | 101.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ad…887abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 91.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…5912backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0b2bbacked Yes | 18c | 63.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…7d02backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigeria vs. Mozambique end in a draw?this page
- Will Mozambique win on 2026-01-05?No won
- Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.