NFL · resolved market
Taylor Swift shown 5 or more times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8246bf269ef2fc7a7584f6509e546ddebeadaf7d7f67f4872358a65e7fcdf352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 44c | 443.41$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Yes | 29c | 383.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…fac7backed Yes | 79c | 264.65$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 61c | 244$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 70c | 199.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 29c | 86.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Yes | 29c | 79.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 32c | 76.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d333backed Yes | 45c | 55.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…f6a2backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…cbc1backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed No | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Taylor Swift shown 5 or more times?this page
- Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 275 Yards?Yes won
- Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?Heads won
- Will Lamar Jackson run for a TD?No won
- Will the Chiefs win by 4 or more points?Yes won
- Will there be 47 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.