NFL · resolved market
Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0880e5125ec884634fb55b1e7f680f179c3c726371794a30d0308834571de20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Headsof Heads, Tails
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Tails | 50c | 3,330$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.99 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Heads | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Heads | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Heads | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Heads | 50c | 555$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Tails | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked Tails | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Tails | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Heads | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Tails | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed Tails | 49c | 25.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Tails | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Tails | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e02…1799backed Tails | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b8…64d7backed Heads | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?this page
- Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 275 Yards?Yes won
- Taylor Swift shown 5 or more times?No won
- Will Lamar Jackson run for a TD?No won
- Will the Chiefs win by 4 or more points?Yes won
- Will there be 47 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.