NFL · resolved market
Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 275 Yards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef2c5ae78fc8e30f8c49cc37060e8c891ce25d78aa43fcd7eb93a1828dc3784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 46c | 1,800$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.48 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 54c | 1,778$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.49 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 54c | 1,500$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,251$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.96 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…0312backed No | 52c | 423.59$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 48c | 364.29$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.37 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 48c | 223.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…56f8backed Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…a205backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 47c | 139.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…3b8fbacked Yes | 47c | 108.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…f3abbacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 52c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 275 Yards?this page
- Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?Heads won
- Taylor Swift shown 5 or more times?No won
- Will Lamar Jackson run for a TD?No won
- Will the Chiefs win by 4 or more points?Yes won
- Will there be 47 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.