NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs win by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceed33c0cb13cc5e8ef32b66debfc6cf5d7713ff684253b87e77720429b57e17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 57c | 2,166$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.3 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 43c | 1,166$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.79 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 43c | 969.88$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.83 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 56c | 843.29$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.24 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed No | 57c | 654.58$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.11 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…8a79backed Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 43c | 444$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.08 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…dbadbacked No | 57c | 366.26$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 51c | 239.12$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…f089backed Yes | 44c | 206.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…a205backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…a1b6backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 53c | 39.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…eccbbacked Yes | 47c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 44c | 36.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…1e19backed Yes | 44c | 32.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…1da7backed No | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs win by 4 or more points?this page
- Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 275 Yards?Yes won
- Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?Heads won
- Taylor Swift shown 5 or more times?No won
- Will Lamar Jackson run for a TD?No won
- Will there be 47 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.