MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x825db4c08cadd4306d6406112066f1f7d09c1b29f109688eb00faf5d44c5d757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 1,342$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.01 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 674.93$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.73 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 412.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.3 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 286.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.12 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 47c | 256.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 17c | 255.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 77c | 249.93$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 231.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.21 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 61c | 218.12$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 16c | 210.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 209.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 57c | 189.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 150.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 140.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 43c | 131$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 34c | 118.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 112.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 61c | 105.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 59c | 74.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 50c | 47.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Over | 53c | 30.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 29.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…6801backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 44c | 23.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 61c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 60c | 18.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.