Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x826bb8bd602e5988468b39371afb12aa910b8ed33899c60fb717a3f9295a63ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 74c | 617.72$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.42 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 413.33$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.22 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 77c | 377.6$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.91 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 9c | 345.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 12c | 238.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.37 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 177.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 174.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 41c | 166.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 153.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.72 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…ee5fbacked Yes | 27c | 146.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 143.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.53 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 139.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 137.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 137.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 124.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 121.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 38c | 117.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 116.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 110.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 14c | 108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 19c | 103.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 242 | 68.6%166 W · 76 L | +23.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…09e2backed No | 65c | 103.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 30c | 98.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 91.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 20c | 84.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 69c | 84.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 75.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 69.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 32c | 63.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 51c | 58.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 446 | 59.9%267 W · 179 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 54.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 22c | 50.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 49.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 74c | 49.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 922 | 61.8%570 W · 352 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 22c | 46.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked No | 72c | 43.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 34c | 42.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,003 | 71%712 W · 291 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 36c | 41.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 440 | 48.6%214 W · 226 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 50c | 39.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 39.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 39.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 52c | 36.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 41c | 34.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 35c | 33.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 36c | 32.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 63c | 30.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 38c | 30.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 28.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 23.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 75c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.