Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8278a108a6d541454c6b14469fb997573eb341126bf6c0828fb43502e1623b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,076$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,030$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 993 | 14.9%148 W · 845 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 10c | 623.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 31c | 563.55$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.97 | 489 | 32.7%160 W · 329 L | +22.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 528.5$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 25c | 528.49$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 428.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 304 | 24.7%75 W · 229 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 24c | 400.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 357 | 26.6%95 W · 262 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 21c | 371.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 351 | 29.6%104 W · 247 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 353.88$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 32c | 311.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 567 | 36.7%208 W · 359 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 279.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 23c | 273.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 272.3$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 12c | 210.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 34c | 207.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 596 | 21.6%129 W · 467 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 423 | 53%224 W · 199 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 192.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 14c | 187.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 273 | 26.4%72 W · 201 L | +14.3wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 37c | 175.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 166.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 162.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 161.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 161.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 7c | 145.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 25c | 134.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 411 | 26.5%109 W · 302 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 75c | 133.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 132.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 76c | 132.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…d5ebbacked No | 79c | 125.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 74c | 123.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 19c | 118.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 114.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 26c | 112.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 483 | 58.8%284 W · 199 L | +18.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 103.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 520 | 22.5%117 W · 403 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 22c | 98.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 96.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 18c | 92.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 26c | 91.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 17c | 86.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 495 | 23.6%117 W · 378 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 18c | 84.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 16c | 82.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 31c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 301 | 26.9%81 W · 220 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 34c | 80.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 30c | 80.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 239 | 33.5%80 W · 159 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 25c | 72.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe81…4fb6backed No | 70c | 71.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 22c | 70.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 16c | 67.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 20c | 66.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 79c | 63.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 77c | 61.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 157 | 25.5%40 W · 117 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 53.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…d103backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 32c | 48.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 25c | 45.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 39.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 37c | 35.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 74c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 72c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 23.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 23.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 79c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 79c | 14.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 79c | 14.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.