Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x724b6b7f0cde32a15d2c4d8fe55c864912ff323b05fb9aee34d78b98bd651983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 2,290$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 1c | 2,280$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 9c | 2,251$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.51 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 51c | 2,073$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.08 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked No | 5c | 1,780$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 1,062$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,039$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.07 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 1c | 918.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 760.02$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 700.39$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 697.95$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 21c | 650$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.2 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 55c | 575.7$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.14 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 528.5$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 525.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 13c | 477.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 2c | 475.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 56c | 462.8$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 43c | 381.66$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.62 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 373.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 56c | 371.65$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 29c | 340.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.65 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 279.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 14c | 278.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.37 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 30c | 270.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 262.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 7c | 245.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 240$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 71c | 239.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 6c | 222.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 219$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 77c | 216.36$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.15 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 6c | 201.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 26c | 200.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.89 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 25c | 196$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 47c | 194.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 71c | 191.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 42c | 188.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 77c | 181.32$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked No | 62c | 180.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 172.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 22c | 170.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.46 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 160.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 152.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 20c | 149.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 64c | 145.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 77c | 126.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 28c | 125.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 121.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 12c | 120.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 24c | 117.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 116.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 116.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 112.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 24c | 110.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 30c | 107.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked Yes | 41c | 104.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 104.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 94.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 88.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 14c | 79.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 75.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…f5e2backed Yes | 66c | 60.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 60.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 28c | 52.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 52.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…5c67backed No | 75c | 52.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 31c | 49.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 73c | 47.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…6fdebacked Yes | 22c | 47.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 47.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 25c | 47.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 73c | 45.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…cb6abacked Yes | 25c | 44.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 41.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 31c | 36.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 30c | 34.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 34.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.