Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158bccc209123a53739f88b546a16435c12f988d7c25e98fda7c7e164951c049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 1c | 1,988$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 5c | 1,062$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 23c | 999.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.46 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 940.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 911$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 3c | 842.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 5c | 760.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 714.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 6c | 704.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 23c | 656.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.63 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 587.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 578.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 534$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 528.5$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 40c | 498.86$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 482.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 8c | 470.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 469.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 18c | 451$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 427.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 347.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 52c | 343.33$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.54 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 332.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 329.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 319$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 312.59$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 310.24$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 299.74$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 279.34$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 46c | 216.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…d148backed Yes | 48c | 208.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…7f01backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 7c | 194.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 44c | 188.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 11c | 188.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 184.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 160.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 159.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 144.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 56c | 138$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 114.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 17c | 110.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 109.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 52c | 105.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 48c | 103.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 101.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 52c | 100.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 55c | 100.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 55c | 98.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 53c | 94.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 89.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 56c | 88.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 37c | 82.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 58c | 77.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 76.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…71f4backed Yes | 37c | 75.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 45c | 72.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…088fbacked Yes | 44c | 72.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 56c | 71.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…298abacked No | 53c | 65.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 51.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed No | 57c | 50.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 57c | 48.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 54c | 44.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 54c | 43.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed Yes | 43c | 43.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 56c | 42.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 45c | 41.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 36.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Yes | 42c | 35.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 47c | 31.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 43c | 30.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…acd3backed Yes | 52c | 30.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 30.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 71c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 29.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.