Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8285ad478c953c149540f5155f2efbedbfa55d32420f544e53e3a2f16501c1c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,259$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 10c | 595.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 415.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 15c | 328.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 5c | 324.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 16c | 322.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 290.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 6c | 265.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 208.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 24c | 203.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 199.46$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…e786backed Yes | 11c | 180.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692d…42b1backed Yes | 17c | 179.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 12c | 174.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 17c | 172.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 14c | 153.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 78c | 128.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 14c | 112.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 100.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 13c | 100.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 20c | 91.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 77c | 91.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 80.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 76c | 71.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 78c | 56.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 26c | 54.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed Yes | 23c | 46.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 28c | 45.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…3f8ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.