Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c6e71758f2650d4abeca8900a58e1f395397e8cc8cd61a415cd24d2848e3164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 15c | 1,988$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.92 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 1,779$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.97 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 1,705$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…ede0backed Yes | 35c | 1,687$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 1,501$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,331$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 34c | 1,289$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.45 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 47c | 1,211$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.78 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 28c | 1,065$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.63 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 15c | 825.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 47c | 806.64$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.26 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 10c | 733.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 75c | 576.19$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.38 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 524.34$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 59c | 515.07$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.12 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 29c | 502.47$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked Yes | 64c | 470.44$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 458.71$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 422.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 45c | 421.74$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.39 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 26c | 405.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 55c | 391.81$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.67 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…175fbacked Yes | 61c | 382.09$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 36c | 359.96$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 34c | 357.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.48 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 351.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 346.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 321.9$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 304.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 295.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 291.23$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 270$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 34c | 268.72$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 267.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 265.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 46c | 247.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…1730backed No | 28c | 247.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 246.35$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 32c | 243.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 25c | 239.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 238.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 67c | 237.33$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 27c | 236.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 226.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 223.3$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 24c | 221.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 68c | 220.08$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 75c | 214.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 213.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 198.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…8beebacked Yes | 16c | 193.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 35c | 191.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 6c | 189.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 80c | 179.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 76c | 176.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 7c | 172.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 12c | 169.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 24c | 166.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 21c | 164.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 164$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 34c | 160.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 158.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 59c | 158$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 157.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 73c | 154.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 22c | 154.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 18c | 153.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 150.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 148.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 19c | 140.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 72c | 139.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 138.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 137$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4b…8176backed No | 55c | 131.89$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 126.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 23c | 126$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 124.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 123.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 13c | 122.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 122.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 22c | 120.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…9cf0backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 50c | 119.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 116.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 18c | 116.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 67c | 111.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 78c | 111.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ff…eeb4backed Yes | 17c | 110.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 109.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 34c | 104.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 103.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 16c | 102.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…745cbacked No | 42c | 102.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 96.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.