Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767b3678ced6e5f93e912c358e42dd919b5a8a652e5c844ea5f472005600616c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 39c | 2,144$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.65 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 20c | 2,067$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.43 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 1,375$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 50c | 1,352$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 1,243$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 34c | 1,160$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.67 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 1,076$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 64c | 1,049$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,047$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.24 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 49c | 1,001$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.93 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 67c | 894.42$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 14c | 771.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 49c | 704.92$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.77 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 29c | 696.77$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.58 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked No | 43c | 674.67$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.64 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 76c | 624.91$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.49 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 33c | 544.19$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 16c | 533.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.21 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 56c | 513.49$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.41 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 68c | 510.28$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.37 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 484.44$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 473.84$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 67c | 451.38$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 25c | 448.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 410.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 74c | 399.97$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.98 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 382.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 378.34$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 72c | 362.15$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.68 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 358.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 67c | 355.56$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.26 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 323.01$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed Yes | 61c | 301.02$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 34c | 291.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 78c | 288.84$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 286$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 281$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 14c | 266.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 248.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 239.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 230.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 54c | 229.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 11c | 224.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.01 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 37c | 214.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 77c | 203.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.92 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked Yes | 77c | 193.59$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 19c | 192.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 5c | 190.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 13c | 188.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 11c | 179.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.53 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 13c | 168.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 79c | 167.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…1d00backed Yes | 68c | 164.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 158.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 68c | 154.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…6fdebacked Yes | 73c | 149.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 140.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 30c | 140.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 139.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 32c | 139.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 60c | 134.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 46c | 131.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 19c | 129.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 28c | 129.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked Yes | 33c | 126.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 126.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 28c | 124.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 32c | 124.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 116.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 116.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 115.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 32c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 114.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 111$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 23c | 109.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 34c | 107.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 19c | 106.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 24c | 104.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 20c | 104.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 102.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…8e63backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 33c | 96.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 35c | 96.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…3633backed No | 52c | 94.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 36c | 92.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 22c | 90.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 69c | 87.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 52c | 85.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 13c | 84.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 83.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 42c | 82.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.