Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c47a4e04e88f42aa3d53fa56df2089bac4babcc811ad95c82f80a8c130c64c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,116$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.52 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,935$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.26 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 1,649$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 1,578$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.19 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 74c | 1,314$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.88 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 1,027$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 4c | 911.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.88 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 866.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.85 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 8c | 808.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.22 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 18c | 764.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.54 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 26c | 750.68$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.94 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 668.69$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.68 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 621.57$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 614.31$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 23c | 553.07$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 487$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 484.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 422$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.65 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 402.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 39c | 390.46$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 80c | 366$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 354.27$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 16c | 346.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.93 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 5c | 332.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 47c | 318.19$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 306.86$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 299.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 282.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 280.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.16 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 4c | 268.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.47 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 257.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 20c | 253.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.75 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 8c | 252.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.57 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 243.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 60c | 240.24$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 239.23$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 8c | 231.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.98 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 19c | 227.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.62 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 220.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 14c | 217.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.76 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 28c | 213.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 200.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 38c | 182.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 15c | 179.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 175.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 167.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 32c | 155.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 32c | 153.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 15c | 151.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 145.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…bc3ebacked No | 79c | 143.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 143.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 141.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 133.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 133$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 128$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 125.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 125.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 75c | 125.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 124.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 17c | 121.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 28c | 116.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 116.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 113.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 10c | 113.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 110.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 109.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 21c | 108.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 105.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 22c | 104.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed Yes | 22c | 104.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 79c | 103.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 92.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 89.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 32c | 87.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 21c | 85.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 84.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 83.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 49c | 82.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 53c | 76.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 28c | 76.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 48c | 76.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 71.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 18c | 70.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…3f8ebacked Yes | 17c | 69.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 66.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 62.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.