MLB · resolved market
Will Venezuela win Pool D at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x829c1df7d8d4b63fa907564310f84f164726d157175ec9866b775afe774507fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,112 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 25c | 478$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 67c | 474.99$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.02 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 27c | 468.28$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 263.37$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 66c | 236$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 23c | 233.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8d…4537backed Yes | 27c | 226.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 20c | 215$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d4…bff4backed Yes | 29c | 202.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 199.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 75c | 172.34$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 25c | 154$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 103.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 94.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 84.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 73c | 79.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…6c0bbacked Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 57.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87f2…a56ebacked Yes | 34c | 55.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 53.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes | 22c | 48.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…f628backed Yes | 40c | 42.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 26c | 40.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30e…0dc3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 71c | 24.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 69c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 80c | 17.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…0479backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Venezuela win Pool D at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?this page
- Will Dominican Republic win Pool D at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.