MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b06b070060dfc26940288ee0febf218ddb3cc06ea26e74970c364170f5551a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…c780backed Under | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +288.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 5c | 2,492$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 62c | 1,740$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 806$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 2c | 642.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 4cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 34c | 628$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.2 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 561.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.5 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 496.75$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 424$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.33 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 61c | 245.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 44c | 239.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 211.47$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 205.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 64c | 156.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 36c | 142.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 134.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 39c | 127.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 126$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 34c | 122.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 12c | 110.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 18c | 84.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 43c | 62.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 48c | 55.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 43c | 54.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 34c | 50.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 67c | 32.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 44c | 28.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 26.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 44c | 24.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Over | 57c | 22.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…f516backed Under | 64c | 18.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 67c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.