MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c2d3216067139cd185deff932078d3ba01b4862118e3db885a78568a950f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 5,694$2,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.19 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 5,006$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.42 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Under | 54c | 4,131$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 41c | 1,840$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.37 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 48c | 1,704$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.21 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,257$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.5 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.29 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 50c | 832.69$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.35 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 678.8$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.07 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 649$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.46 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 535.71$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.6 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 451.37$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Under | 53c | 317.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 52c | 280$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 207.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…719bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 50c | 192$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 53c | 189.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 187.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 21c | 169$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 142.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 21c | 141.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 50c | 125.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 93.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 84.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 52c | 80.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 52c | 63.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 49c | 50.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 46.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 52c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 51c | 35.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 33.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 29.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 52c | 29.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.