MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4a30903e8808d1f468bd9e19ab52fffbbce858057da58622a1600f3bc3928a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 9,091$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 5,779$4,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 5,089$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,937.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 77c | 1,070$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners | 71c | 1,002$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.11 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 515.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.05 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 336.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…ccbebacked Seattle Mariners | 12c | 301.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Kansas City Royals | 76c | 153$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 105.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 85.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 76.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Kansas City Royals | 29c | 69.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 62.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 58.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 55.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Kansas City Royals | 23c | 50.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Kansas City Royals | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Kansas City Royals | 30c | 49.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Seattle Mariners | 27c | 49.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 46.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 46.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Kansas City Royals | 31c | 33.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 25.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.