Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ca408e5d4b4c13bf9039e454276d7a9b18a8bb8c5d9d6b5216d7fef9a3517c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 30c | 3,400$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 40cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 2,823$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.49 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 49c | 2,121$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.52 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 1,050$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 49c | 835.4$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.67 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 49c | 628.2$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.8 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 69c | 543.21$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.81 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 45c | 511.41$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 476.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.72 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 45c | 443.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 42c | 429.93$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.15 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 55c | 272.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 50c | 166.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 71c | 159.18$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 70c | 159$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 78c | 111.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 12c | 110$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 75c | 100.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 29c | 99.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 69c | 56.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 24c | 48.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked No | 22c | 45.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…469fbacked No | 69c | 42.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc2…68cebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 75c | 36.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 70c | 28.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…2623backed No | 71c | 27.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked No | 80c | 22.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 22.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 17.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.