Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9650248658bf29e1c80583d90fe5e9e6624ca387664eb5d0be16c48a7abf50c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 4,785$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.41 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed No | 57c | 4,405$2,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.85 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…0ab4backed Yes | 73c | 3,345$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 56c | 3,019$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.72 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0075…5f10backed Yes | 71c | 1,999$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 46c | 1,870$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.88 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed No | 50c | 1,392$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.94 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 43c | 1,187$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.45 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 44c | 1,181$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.63 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 42c | 1,115$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.3 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 43c | 1,097$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.83 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 26c | 980.27$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.16 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked No | 17c | 801$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.5 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 18c | 792.84$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.36 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked No | 59c | 542.37$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed No | 57c | 523.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.02 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ad…795fbacked No | 8c | 508.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 11cpaid | +348.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 35c | 476.59$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.81 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 72c | 456.77$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 45c | 425.95$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 14c | 374.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.48 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…ae57backed No | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.42per pick | 16cpaid | +242.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked No | 17c | 250$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +180.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…618abacked No | 16c | 223.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 16cpaid | +275%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 28c | 217.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa202…9b12backed Yes | 72c | 209.06$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 32c | 206.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Yes | 36c | 191.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 43c | 160.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…6c04backed No | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 36c | 135.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed No | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Yes | 44c | 129.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 70c | 116.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…5d6ebacked Yes | 44c | 84.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Yes | 38c | 82.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 54c | 75.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 44c | 54.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 44c | 52.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 46c | 51.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Yes | 42c | 46.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…8c3fbacked Yes | 50c | 44.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca5…9343backed Yes | 47c | 41.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 41c | 39.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4373…6d1cbacked Yes | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x311f…2aebbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 30.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 80c | 30.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…6476backed No | 56c | 29.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…261dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 56c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 44c | 24.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9695…0437backed Yes | 73c | 20.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c1…07d5backed Yes | 66c | 20.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…931dbacked Yes | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6927…21adbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 53c | 19.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Yes | 77c | 15.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-29?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.