Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82dc8ce353d724bc19184d0e997bf912e69ab1b5e602daf4fca4856f269d3746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed Yes | 68c | 1,326$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 29c | 1,093$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.33 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 961.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 64c | 684.21$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 4c | 666.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…3990backed No | 27c | 314.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked No | 58c | 313.94$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 6c | 306.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 53c | 276.94$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 56c | 237.42$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 5c | 229.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 15c | 227.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 47c | 213.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 58c | 188.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 178.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…c3bcbacked Yes | 73c | 146.54$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 37c | 145.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 126$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 119.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0169backed Yes | 65c | 118$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 18c | 107.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 37c | 103$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 93.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…c685backed No | 16c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 75.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 22c | 48.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked Yes | 55c | 32.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?this page
- Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.