TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Fenerbahce

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KK Crvena Zvezdaof KK Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,548 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed KK Crvena Zvezda52c4,802$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.537052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c3,100$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.712040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Fenerbahce50c3,054$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.2121444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Fenerbahce53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dca…87d0backed KK Crvena Zvezda41c2,800$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Fenerbahce35c2,674$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9471844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Fenerbahce59c2,451$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.7510663.2%67 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…c249backed Fenerbahce31c2,372$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.431921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-55.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked KK Crvena Zvezda56c2,317$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.8254251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed KK Crvena Zvezda47c2,031$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.15949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Fenerbahce43c1,021$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.9814542.1%61 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked KK Crvena Zvezda51c925.62$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.7427557.5%158 W · 117 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed KK Crvena Zvezda70c727.78$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.0813235.6%47 W · 85 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xada7…8dbcbacked Fenerbahce47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed KK Crvena Zvezda53c628.96$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.0614447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Fenerbahce46c602.84$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.6516235.2%57 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Fenerbahce27c574.64$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1636939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e6…cbd8backed Fenerbahce47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fenerbahce46c462.21$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.9312042.5%51 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed KK Crvena Zvezda54c411.11$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.113775.7%28 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Fenerbahce50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011455.3%63 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked KK Crvena Zvezda52c360.23$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.233154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200d…f117backed Fenerbahce59c341.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fenerbahce52c333.69$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.935234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Fenerbahce52c323.55$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Fenerbahce47c321.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3213147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c315.37$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.221729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7203…22d6backed Fenerbahce61c315.37$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.053764.9%24 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Fenerbahce49c270.81$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2828943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Fenerbahce36c242.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.516446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Fenerbahce46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005050%25 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50f…f999backed Fenerbahce46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Fenerbahce47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed KK Crvena Zvezda52c190.47$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.434151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7d3…a0e9backed Fenerbahce48c179$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab8…e3d1backed Fenerbahce48c177$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Fenerbahce47c176.6$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked KK Crvena Zvezda29c169.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4510736.4%39 W · 68 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe212…5243backed Fenerbahce48c166$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511a…9745backed Fenerbahce75c164.27$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.23560%21 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1243…2a64backed Fenerbahce48c162.88$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed KK Crvena Zvezda58c160.27$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.662040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Fenerbahce59c159.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.876929%20 W · 49 L-9.3wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8268…ca80backed Fenerbahce47c156$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb7…a64dbacked Fenerbahce48c156$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda45c152.33$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.084634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fenerbahce48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec7…1e38backed Fenerbahce59c113.6$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.054136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Fenerbahce10c113.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.122157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fenerbahce52c107.73$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5431651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1698…adbdbacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c107.55$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda54c107.05$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.242263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+49.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed KK Crvena Zvezda47c106.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4310926.6%29 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Fenerbahce47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c105$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.356962.3%43 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4523…0be0backed Fenerbahce22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Fenerbahce47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475240.4%21 W · 31 L-7.9wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-23.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed KK Crvena Zvezda54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Fenerbahce38c99.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked KK Crvena Zvezda48c89.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.585046%23 W · 27 L-7.9wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-28.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c88.38$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.548760.9%53 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccdc…247dbacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6468…b693backed Fenerbahce61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aaa…ce40backed KK Crvena Zvezda54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Fenerbahce52c70.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.696144.3%27 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc3…7feabacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed KK Crvena Zvezda55c69.23$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.471060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ff…fb63backed KK Crvena Zvezda53c67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed KK Crvena Zvezda47c65.54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.748534.1%29 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9954…e3b5backed KK Crvena Zvezda53c64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Fenerbahce51c62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.685646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Fenerbahce67c61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.066940.6%28 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Fenerbahce37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x030d…beadbacked Fenerbahce41c59.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.431030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda52c59.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.451631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x63af…348fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9651…0488backed KK Crvena Zvezda53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Fenerbahce44c56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.817646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x403d…2709backed Fenerbahce45c55.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253735.1%13 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea34…296ebacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Fenerbahce52c54.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.561040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed KK Crvena Zvezda57c54.48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.556363.5%40 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb92b…9a35backed KK Crvena Zvezda53c54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Fenerbahce50c53.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6812454%67 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4f…6689backed KK Crvena Zvezda53c53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a5…c4c3backed KK Crvena Zvezda44c52.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed KK Crvena Zvezda40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Fenerbahce46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2327338.1%104 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Fenerbahce52c47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.443933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3471…3fcfbacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb835…a900backed KK Crvena Zvezda53c44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked KK Crvena Zvezda80c43.75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.872560%15 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Fenerbahce64c43.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a81…b7e1backed Fenerbahce48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce0…2b8abacked Fenerbahce51c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.558256.1%46 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed KK Crvena Zvezda54c39.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.265453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb610…0f48backed KK Crvena Zvezda53c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Fenerbahce29c37.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb547…190dbacked KK Crvena Zvezda53c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x295a…bdedbacked KK Crvena Zvezda63c36.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.