Asian League · resolved market
Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82e6647d0d4d758c7e30d3b980fe8305926fdf9510f9e8cd9a48b8df519118d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 75c | 5,567$4,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 25c | 3,096$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 25c | 2,210$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.11 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,812$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.15 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 30c | 1,221$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.7 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 78c | 1,147$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.05 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 25c | 1,082$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.51 | 275 | 40.7%112 W · 163 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 25c | 706.54$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Under | 75c | 668.38$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.09 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 25c | 439.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 25c | 415.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 25c | 298.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 239 | 27.2%65 W · 174 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…0615backed Under | 75c | 286.3$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…16c9backed Under | 68c | 278.01$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…634ebacked Over | 32c | 278$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 199.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 25c | 187$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 25c | 165.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 164 | 54.3%89 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6852…ce4dbacked Under | 74c | 144.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 135.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked Over | 25c | 43.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 74c | 42.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 42.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…5424backed Under | 74c | 41.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Under | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Under | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Under | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Under | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5this page
- Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Under won
- Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Under won
- Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.