TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,602 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51f4…3e21backed Chicago Cubs18c243$44 inWon+$199.2625034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs74c194.89$144 inWon+$50.714,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs65c182.42$118 inWon+$64.0312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Toronto Blue Jays31c159.92$50 inLost-$49.5877353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Chicago Cubs33c151.52$50 inWon+$101.5212128.1%34 W · 87 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…0a3fbacked Toronto Blue Jays31c106.9$33 inLost-$33.144141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays47c92.02$43 inLost-$43.098,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Toronto Blue Jays31c84.16$26 inLost-$26.0911149.5%55 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago Cubs42c77.55$33 inWon+$44.9842047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Toronto Blue Jays31c63.68$20 inLost-$19.7426752.8%141 W · 126 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Toronto Blue Jays58c53.35$31 inLost-$30.941,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays58c45.34$26 inLost-$26.1927652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays53c42.06$22 inLost-$22.386,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays26c41.13$11 inLost-$10.692,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Toronto Blue Jays67c29.85$20 inLost-$2044345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays60c19.73$12 inLost-$11.842,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f04…2392backed Chicago Cubs72c14.99$11 inWon+$4.1510557.1%60 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.