MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc2a7bc7a05ecafec3954630c2cc4fcff6a3d25002728a0ba86769f346b802d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 19c | 1,279$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 1,175$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab00…f0c8backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 937.49$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.75 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 402.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 388.25$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 372.01$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 361.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 217.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 189$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 77.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 77.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 70.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 55.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 55.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 52.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 45.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.