MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6c6bffea76d7eb63ddec54255f33aa86966638da51dc98c3f8da9ce458b319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Under | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 19c | 297.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 48c | 283.69$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.17 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 26c | 238.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 43c | 224.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 25c | 218.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 205.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 67c | 201.93$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 33c | 161.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 71c | 129.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 115$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 67c | 98.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 83.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 18c | 82.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 20c | 79.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…5c85backed Over | 65c | 75.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 75.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 71.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 35c | 71.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 68.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…c3cbbacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 35c | 62.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 38c | 62.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 63c | 51.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 37c | 49.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 80c | 44.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 31c | 40.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 74c | 32.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 67c | 32.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 64c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.