MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eb378430dd2195bbc9cabf48e7cf4d871dbdd405011dbcfc18c71fdf1e550f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 1,714$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.28 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 1,346$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 1,183$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 1,052$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 558$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.7 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 523.99$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.59 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 503.46$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 420$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 313.12$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 259.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.24 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 200.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 13c | 158.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 145$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 115$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 103.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 49c | 87.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Chicago Cubs | 77c | 86.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 77.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 71.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 54.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 38.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 32.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 30.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 26.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 26.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…051abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 18.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.