Dota2 · resolved market
Team Yandex to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833e8541875cfaba034d668b0683b1fab2f657b464ca5553e1ef1443bacb752a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 29c | 789.97$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.45 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 66c | 616.04$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.08 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef30…e949backed No | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 457.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 36c | 410.89$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Yes | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 66c | 402.11$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Yes | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked No | 35c | 341.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…da4fbacked Yes | 62c | 324.82$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e0…6ec6backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 29c | 281.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes | 63c | 252.59$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 64c | 164.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed No | 37c | 144$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 23c | 126.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 109.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed No | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 36c | 93.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 19c | 89.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…7f01backed Yes | 64c | 84.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 40c | 52.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 63c | 42.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 59c | 35.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed Yes | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 65c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Yandex to win 2-0?this page
- Virtus.pro to win 2-0?No won
- Virtus.pro vs Team Yandex: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.