NFL · resolved market
Will there be 44 or more combined points scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x834985d090701af09f6dbafc58fb911d4543854a0fff1414cd3dfe5e0f1aca43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x741e…2f80backed No | 53c | 20,166$10,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,604.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 47c | 16,886$7,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,949.51 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Yes | 50c | 3,160$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.36 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 47c | 1,018$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.43 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Yes | 52c | 534.9$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.15 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 53c | 517.8$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.43 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 48c | 494.9$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.55 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…1fb6backed Yes | 48c | 407$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 48c | 397.48$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.12 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…bdf7backed No | 55c | 357.95$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 53c | 227$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Yes | 55c | 169.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 48c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 45c | 131.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 10c | 120.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…969dbacked No | 50c | 88.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 46c | 39.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 44 or more combined points scored?this page
- Will the 49ers win by 5 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.