TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Pirates vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Pirates, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,947 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pirates6c32,786$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.531,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Pirates25c6,830$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.2121847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Nationals48c6,171$2,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,208.9538043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Pirates49c6,018$2,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,976.5333554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nationals49c4,077$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.5973149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Pirates43c3,471$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.8378445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Nationals59c3,436$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.7638751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9d38backed Nationals20c1,899$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.4217045.3%77 W · 93 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1240…3a3fbacked Pirates53c1,641$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.591040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nationals47c1,582$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.6743949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pirates42c1,566$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.962,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Pirates9c1,436$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.221,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nationals53c1,395$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.6512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pirates51c1,174$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.5863152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Pirates50c1,135$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.651,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals50c1,042$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.481,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Pirates49c999.89$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.5483248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Pirates42c952.38$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pirates48c900$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4323,31446.3%1,533 W · 1,781 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Pirates44c820.92$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6476456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nationals39c807$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.831,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals51c784$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.161,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Pirates51c707.61$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.881,35950.8%690 W · 669 L+12.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals50c685.45$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.012,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Nationals51c650$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.54761.7%29 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pirates42c590.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.999,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Nationals52c510$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.839556.7%224 W · 171 L-1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Pirates52c467$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8410154.5%55 W · 46 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pirates56c416.76$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.254941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3713…14e8backed Nationals52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.622951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Nationals52c382.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.7210451%53 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf267…0a4cbacked Nationals50c350$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17513052.3%68 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Pirates25c322.06$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8417930.2%54 W · 125 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pirates36c286.75$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.231,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Nationals50c268$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13457744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebe…ccbdbacked Pirates53c235.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nationals47c217$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8947745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Pirates52c210.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.581,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Nationals53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9440352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Nationals50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010646.2%49 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Nationals52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9699951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72b7…e360backed Nationals80c195$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396152.5%32 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8868…ec0dbacked Nationals53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.687443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a2…9bbabacked Nationals52c166.93$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.813740.1%55 W · 82 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pirates51c163.12$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.666,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Nationals48c156.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2540144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Pirates15c153.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234418.2%8 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Pirates37c152.52$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.524,19750.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3a…aef4backed Pirates51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.51952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Nationals22c145.95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8412640.5%51 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Pirates49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6031254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Nationals51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6513249.2%65 W · 67 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa9…7a30backed Nationals48c112$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2424346.1%112 W · 131 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals52c109$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.322,05853.8%1,107 W · 951 L+33.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Pirates47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502825%7 W · 21 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe892…8cfbbacked Nationals49c106.12$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.124860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Pirates49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021748.4%105 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7554…38e2backed Pirates10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Pirates39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3931145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Pirates49c98.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.121,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Pirates50c96.22$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1160052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nationals49c82.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8670946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab0…4cd3backed Pirates43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349447.9%45 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Nationals51c76$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2414949%73 W · 76 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Pirates62c72.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.224057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeacf…ed1dbacked Nationals80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.510853.7%58 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7665…f332backed Nationals47c52.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.681145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x799f…c6b6backed Nationals52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.089252.2%48 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Pirates53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2538245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1080…b86ebacked Pirates49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011054.5%60 W · 50 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4020…466dbacked Nationals49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8210052%52 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Pirates48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.225548.6%124 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb39e…5182backed Nationals50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209639.6%38 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed Pirates50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2038951.2%199 W · 190 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Pirates53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023248.3%112 W · 120 L-13.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Nationals48c35.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4228949.1%142 W · 147 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Nationals51c33.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2135245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Nationals48c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.162360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Pirates49c30.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9320944%92 W · 117 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd287…7485backed Nationals48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.654352.3%284 W · 259 L+27.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1181…509abacked Nationals49c26.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5317146.2%79 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e1…7edabacked Pirates78c25.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.86755.2%37 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Nationals51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.968846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Pirates79c18.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8725854.3%140 W · 118 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bef…c839backed Pirates62c16.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212070%14 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.