Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83bad0beec3c42e247f17a5a17747a0667c1fb6f61fbcd8f5bb841c7a4a31275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 1,375$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.31 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 28c | 1,105$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.28 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 1,053$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 67c | 345.22$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.03 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 42c | 157.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 153.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 115.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 45c | 93.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 90.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 82.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…b88dbacked Yes | 50c | 81.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 81.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 29c | 66.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 68c | 42.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 36c | 41.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 37.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 35.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 31.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 30.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.