NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Jets: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83bb191f6b3902fbe4fe8558e791ff8e7d3d10ba56db6470773b1d0e44e5584a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 58c | 9,020$5,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,833.22 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 4,605$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.11 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…13b6backed Over | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 3,703$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.05 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 44c | 3,600$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 46c | 2,785$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.99 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 1,667$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.99 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 959.28$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.13 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 57c | 810.26$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.41 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 33c | 746$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 56c | 359.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.54 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 66c | 321.83$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 252$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.78 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 43c | 240$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 43c | 198$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 60c | 193.13$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 56c | 181$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 169.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 151.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…f8e3backed Over | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 57c | 107.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 50c | 63.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 57c | 48.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Under | 48c | 47.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 39.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 43c | 38.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 43c | 36.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 57c | 28.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 25.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Jets: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. JetsMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.