Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d55dcff5fc03b1217264f02b55bb2ecdca6bc420130959adf9d903ab2a8d12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 537.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 510.6$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 186.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 173.29$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 26c | 172.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 172.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 157.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 149.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 66c | 149.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 130.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 120.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 120.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 42c | 117$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 103.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 100.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 98.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 98.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 36c | 94.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 31c | 93.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 84.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 74.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 74.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 70.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 69.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 69.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 27c | 68.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 16c | 64.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 61.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 60.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 59.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 57.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 55.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 54.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 41c | 51.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 25c | 51.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 48.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 26c | 45.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 34c | 45.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 34c | 42.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 42.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 38.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 36.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 35.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed Yes | 43c | 34.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 31.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked No | 71c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 27.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 63c | 20.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 71c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.