Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf530d133964edcb3df9a21c65ffdfeccd9debc9ee5dfa711bcd3367485269292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 714.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 289.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 240.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.17 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 195.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 190.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 65c | 143.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 63c | 132.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…24dcbacked No | 58c | 132.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 113.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 97.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 96.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 96.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 94.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 92.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 92.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 30c | 88.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 70c | 81.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 76.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 70.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 68.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 74c | 67.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 38c | 66.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 66.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 65.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 24c | 58.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 29c | 51.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 62c | 50.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 49.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 46.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 46.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 56c | 44.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 43.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 43c | 42.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 70c | 42.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 42.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 37.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2d86backed Yes | 65c | 34.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 34.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 31.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 38c | 28.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 75c | 27.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 59c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 62c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 66c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 18.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 16.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 75c | 15.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.