Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83fc5754505f6d18c21fde1520aedcb70a67cd368fdb8c0fbe3e8d592575f846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 22c | 3,208$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.65 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 77c | 1,265$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.48 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 1,262$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 822.68$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 27c | 274$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 79c | 220$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 214$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…64d7backed No | 79c | 213.28$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 28c | 160.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 71c | 141.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 114.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 98.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 97.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 24c | 93.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 88.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 70.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 17c | 70.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 68.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 62.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 55.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 53.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 36c | 50.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e6…d9aabacked Yes | 22c | 45.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 34.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 29.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 26.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 24.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 79c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5c49backed No | 77c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 12.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.