Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c9a1c5008b079fb370df333e32ef0a550dbe3254a8d5198ef65b652e22ba16b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 63c | 1,222$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.35 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 35c | 639.48$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 70c | 508$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 501.73$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.87 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 420$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 362.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 34c | 339.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 30c | 315$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 307.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 34c | 282$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 67c | 275.56$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 214.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 214$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 10c | 176.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed No | 10c | 170.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 155.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 150.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 119.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 105.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed Yes | 63c | 104.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 15c | 100.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 11c | 95.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 26c | 86.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 77.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 74c | 68.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 25c | 56.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 28c | 54.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 38c | 54.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 48.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 31c | 42.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 75c | 40.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 68c | 38.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 71c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 64c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 75c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.