Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp Blue (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8423bf837b689f9badb57d1c2e608846b0dbdf2d99dda715048ad383259f3ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Solaryof Solary, Karmine Corp Blue
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Karmine Corp Blue | 36c | 4,650$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.71 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Solary | 63c | 4,017$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.81 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Solary | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.3 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Karmine Corp Blue | 33c | 1,495$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.35 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 33c | 1,316$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.34 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Solary | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Solary | 65c | 888.63$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.02 | 474 | 55.3%262 W · 212 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Karmine Corp Blue | 37c | 601$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.22 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 41c | 432.07$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Solary | 59c | 393.85$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.67 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Solary | 63c | 157$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Solary | 62c | 146.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Karmine Corp Blue | 33c | 141.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…1c37backed Karmine Corp Blue | 41c | 122.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Solary | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Karmine Corp Blue | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…370cbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 474 | 34.8%165 W · 309 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Solary | 63c | 94.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 660 | 59.8%395 W · 265 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Solary | 59c | 90.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Solary | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Solary | 59c | 44.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Karmine Corp Blue | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 60.4%90 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Solary | 78c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Solary | 63c | 29.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 647 | 49.9%323 W · 324 L | -24.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…9832backed Karmine Corp Blue | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Karmine Corp Blue | 39c | 28.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…01bdbacked Solary | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp Blue (+1.5)this page
- Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp Blue (+2.5)Solary won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL PlayoffsSolary won
- LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 WinnerSolary won
- LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 WinnerSolary won
- LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 WinnerSolary won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.