TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Solaryof Solary, Karmine Corp Blue
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Solary72c13,896$10,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,865.0492254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed Solary70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50039964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Solary69c4,115$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.392,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Karmine Corp Blue30c3,986$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.843539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Solary70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.891,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Karmine Corp Blue28c2,781$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.591,01447.6%483 W · 531 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Karmine Corp Blue28c2,616$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.2113632.4%44 W · 92 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Karmine Corp Blue27c2,580$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.031,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Solary70c2,560$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.051,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23e…98a4backed Karmine Corp Blue30c2,504$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.77951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Karmine Corp Blue33c2,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8251,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Karmine Corp Blue3c2,156$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.154314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Karmine Corp Blue1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Karmine Corp Blue29c1,962$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.546637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Karmine Corp Blue28c1,772$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.8488544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Karmine Corp Blue22c1,580$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.492,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Karmine Corp Blue34c1,329$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.771,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Karmine Corp Blue32c1,322$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.4332939.8%131 W · 198 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Karmine Corp Blue25c1,312$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9128048.6%136 W · 144 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Solary77c1,306$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.3461154.7%334 W · 277 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Karmine Corp Blue29c1,304$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.981,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Karmine Corp Blue1c1,300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1317647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Karmine Corp Blue27c1,284$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8317343.4%75 W · 98 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Solary73c1,276$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.331,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Solary68c1,250$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Solary72c1,231$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.6867250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Karmine Corp Blue24c1,167$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1586943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Solary72c1,062$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.9999756.6%564 W · 433 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Solary70c1,040$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.0485852.3%449 W · 409 L+35.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Solary75c1,029$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.0215453.9%83 W · 71 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ca…f644backed Solary79c1,009$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0624858.1%144 W · 104 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked Karmine Corp Blue30c925$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.56829.4%20 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Karmine Corp Blue30c895$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.525743.2%111 W · 146 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed Karmine Corp Blue26c893.95$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.3820151.2%103 W · 98 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Karmine Corp Blue26c881.92$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.619844.4%88 W · 110 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Karmine Corp Blue21c839.11$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.81,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Solary66c828.6$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.864849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Solary73c821.92$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.921,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Karmine Corp Blue25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20086451.4%444 W · 420 L+52.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Solary67c776.98$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.414352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Karmine Corp Blue30c684.37$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.997949.4%39 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0814…875abacked Solary74c680.24$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2430057.7%173 W · 127 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Karmine Corp Blue25c656.06$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0875342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Karmine Corp Blue28c614.94$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9433632.4%109 W · 227 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Karmine Corp Blue28c600.31$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.141,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Karmine Corp Blue16c559.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,45613.2%192 W · 1,264 L-111.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Karmine Corp Blue31c542.41$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.461,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Solary70c506.55$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.972,17853.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L+61.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Solary65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17516155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Solary77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Karmine Corp Blue33c451.88$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0239140.4%158 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Karmine Corp Blue30c427.52$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2621944.3%97 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Karmine Corp Blue35c420$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14711037.3%41 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Karmine Corp Blue30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7813454.5%73 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Solary77c390.59$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5935159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Solary71c388.76$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7316339.3%64 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Karmine Corp Blue32c375$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Karmine Corp Blue27c359.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9724750.2%124 W · 123 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Karmine Corp Blue28c355.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10066947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed Karmine Corp Blue28c355.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.91450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Karmine Corp Blue10c353.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356518.5%12 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Karmine Corp Blue26c352$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.233,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Karmine Corp Blue26c338.71$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5552046%239 W · 281 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Karmine Corp Blue30c334.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025256.3%142 W · 110 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb91…7db6backed Karmine Corp Blue30c333.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030348.8%148 W · 155 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Karmine Corp Blue30c330.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3278043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed Solary77c309.74$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7338057.4%218 W · 162 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Karmine Corp Blue28c287.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8069642.4%295 W · 401 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed Karmine Corp Blue35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015357.5%88 W · 65 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Karmine Corp Blue32c280$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.615031.3%47 W · 103 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Solary69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.512656.3%71 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Solary71c249.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.586758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Solary70c230$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6920154.7%110 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Solary72c223.43$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5167957.9%393 W · 286 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Karmine Corp Blue27c202.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8647630.7%146 W · 330 L-13.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Karmine Corp Blue34c202.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.161,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Solary68c181.35$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.182,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d86…a6f9backed Karmine Corp Blue35c171.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6027432.5%89 W · 185 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e7…c067backed Solary71c160$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.23357.6%19 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Karmine Corp Blue17c159.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2535943.5%156 W · 203 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b04…f792backed Solary68c159.53$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0539266.6%261 W · 131 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Karmine Corp Blue26c158.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6132253.1%171 W · 151 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Solary72c152.8$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.091,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Karmine Corp Blue27c148$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9612243.4%53 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed Solary70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8642348.2%204 W · 219 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Solary70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8648553.4%259 W · 226 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfce5…94dabacked Solary71c141.08$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.323647.2%17 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Solary75c135.92$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3540231.3%126 W · 276 L-28.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Karmine Corp Blue27c134.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.792,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1920…2be1backed Solary70c127.14$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.142475%18 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+47.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x94f4…77a2backed Solary71c123.61$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.747755.8%43 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed Solary66c113.64$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6442369.3%293 W · 130 L+34.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Solary71c105.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.621,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa56d…ccd7backed Karmine Corp Blue27c102.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed Solary75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2525151%128 W · 123 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Karmine Corp Blue12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7620439.2%80 W · 124 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x153e…7d1bbacked Solary70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Karmine Corp Blue19c98.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.071,38431.3%433 W · 951 L-133.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Solary70c97.18$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6424650%123 W · 123 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Karmine Corp Blue33c93.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7958437.2%217 W · 367 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.