TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Solaryof Solary, Karmine Corp Blue
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$147,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Solary67c18,500$12,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,102.7791854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc71…2c40backed Karmine Corp Blue4c16,993$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Karmine Corp Blue30c13,102$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,984.0767760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Karmine Corp Blue42c10,454$4,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,405.5553355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Karmine Corp Blue30c5,110$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53343539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Karmine Corp Blue28c4,070$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.441,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12df…090dbacked Karmine Corp Blue1c3,900$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Solary70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Solary70c2,600$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.11,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Karmine Corp Blue3c2,161$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.394314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Karmine Corp Blue24c2,147$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50917647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Karmine Corp Blue1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked Karmine Corp Blue32c1,918$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.2215457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Karmine Corp Blue11c1,906$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.819041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Karmine Corp Blue33c1,777$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.181,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Karmine Corp Blue28c1,669$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.762,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Solary68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9864749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked Karmine Corp Blue30c1,310$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3936829.4%20 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Solary70c1,309$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.231,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a56…ebc2backed Karmine Corp Blue9c1,177$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95b…0d14backed Karmine Corp Blue34c1,053$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.655764.9%37 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Karmine Corp Blue1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101543.9%6 W · 148 L-0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed Karmine Corp Blue17c984.33$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.888652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Solary57c930.44$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.21,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ffc…cfabbacked Karmine Corp Blue16c819.15$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4623740.5%96 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b0…2c7abacked Solary51c769.47$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Solary68c746.33$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.9767250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Solary68c740.11$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.21,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7af0…509dbacked Solary70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2925268.3%172 W · 80 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Karmine Corp Blue49c703.83$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.133251.5%171 W · 161 L+33.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Karmine Corp Blue34c684.36$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.151,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Karmine Corp Blue29c604.82$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.41,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Solary69c600$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1861,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Solary70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec6…50cdbacked Karmine Corp Blue52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Karmine Corp Blue40c499.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20086758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Solary72c486.91$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9182953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Solary18c485$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.724137.8%91 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Karmine Corp Blue76c442.85$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.751,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Solary53c439.11$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5766458%385 W · 279 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Solary70c413.85$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1566059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed Karmine Corp Blue49c406.46$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6528859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Karmine Corp Blue17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Karmine Corp Blue28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Karmine Corp Blue40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15023849.2%117 W · 121 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Solary52c370.72$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7440231.3%126 W · 276 L-28.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Solary69c370$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.786251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Solary70c360.33$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.12,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Karmine Corp Blue24c339.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Karmine Corp Blue40c335$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13439055.4%216 W · 174 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Karmine Corp Blue27c331.69$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2231244.6%139 W · 173 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Karmine Corp Blue21c330.44$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.81,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Solary65c308.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9148353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Solary68c307.02$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.062,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Solary74c305.71$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7147453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24f5…98d2backed Solary47c302$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0510150.5%51 W · 50 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Solary62c296.83$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.862,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Solary50c284.33$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.0286943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Solary71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6d…7294backed Solary65c260.01$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.035742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Karmine Corp Blue37c254.21$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5247630.7%146 W · 330 L-13.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe703…37ddbacked Karmine Corp Blue46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11515556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Solary68c249.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Solary50c248$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.021,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Karmine Corp Blue29c237.22$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0469841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Karmine Corp Blue16c236.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3657349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd933…6a68backed Karmine Corp Blue5c236.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-82.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Karmine Corp Blue54c222.54$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0619244.3%85 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef1…add2backed Solary48c222$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.0422867.5%154 W · 74 L+21.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Solary70c220$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6620154.7%110 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Karmine Corp Blue13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2660738.7%235 W · 372 L+2.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Karmine Corp Blue40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8041439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Karmine Corp Blue10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2035223.9%84 W · 268 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd1…17ccbacked Karmine Corp Blue10c199.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.860124.1%145 W · 456 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Solary49c194.82$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3675342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Karmine Corp Blue15c194.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022229.3%65 W · 157 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Solary53c189.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7727244.1%120 W · 152 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Karmine Corp Blue33c188.03$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.761,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa58f…fd67backed Karmine Corp Blue26c185$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.326346.8%123 W · 140 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Karmine Corp Blue15c170.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2548438%184 W · 300 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Karmine Corp Blue40c170$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6838945.2%176 W · 213 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d7…dacfbacked Karmine Corp Blue59c161.29$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9528965.1%188 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked Solary48c158.94$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.799747.1%470 W · 527 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6399…b12dbacked Solary49c157.39$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.392286.4%19 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Karmine Corp Blue33c145.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4815829.7%47 W · 111 L-0.5wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f3…03e9backed Solary70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.869956.6%56 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a5a…0088backed Solary70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8649361.5%303 W · 190 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed Karmine Corp Blue27c140.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.159046.7%42 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9bc1…7f52backed Karmine Corp Blue42c134.88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-77%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f7…aebbbacked Solary74c134.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8225850.4%130 W · 128 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Karmine Corp Blue41c131.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.441,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Karmine Corp Blue27c130.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5352743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Karmine Corp Blue40c129.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9523047%108 W · 122 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Karmine Corp Blue40c127.63$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0519340.4%78 W · 115 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Karmine Corp Blue20c124.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.854824.3%133 W · 415 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d9…25cbbacked Karmine Corp Blue33c122.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7116159%95 W · 66 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed Solary76c120.87$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0741469.3%287 W · 127 L+33.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7172…e014backed Karmine Corp Blue34c115.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8410357.3%59 W · 44 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c5…6483backed Solary72c115.79$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8926958%156 W · 113 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Karmine Corp Blue30c113.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.22,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.