TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x198e…ede0backed Yes32c280.8$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c2b…3febbacked Yes39c251.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c251.65$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes44c238.08$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No60c199.96$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9929953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No69c188.96$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.152,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes29c144.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.589728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c140.18$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes32c123.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No65c109.19$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9476755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3339427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c5…8588backed Yes38c93.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.572277.3%17 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c87.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.081,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No66c86.49$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.585,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No60c83.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3383360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes44c75.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3351553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ff…4fe2backed No69c72.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.482676.9%20 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes30c71.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.628,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.350373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes37c67.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No67c65.62$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.541,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed Yes30c64.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.564531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes46c64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.255939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No60c63.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.252,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xace6…b197backed Yes42c63.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No61c59.16$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.897,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No53c55.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.871,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c54.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c52.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.53,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c52.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.197,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes40c51.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.612941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes39c50.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1617926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbea5…1de3backed No73c49.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.554139%16 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes40c48.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4929941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes37c46.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes45c45.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3645236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes24c41.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes41c41.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No66c41.08$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.942,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes39c41.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes26c41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No62c40.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3291861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No67c40.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3722350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No71c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No70c37.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.371464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No61c34.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No61c32.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No61c32.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.722,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked No62c32.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2912955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No56c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5353…293cbacked No62c31.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.143551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No62c30.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.363,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7555855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No60c29.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47e3…7d5dbacked No70c28.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes40c27.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed Yes45c26.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.724053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c26.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.322,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No63c25.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4817766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No56c25.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe306…9be0backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b66…25eebacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e3…e3a2backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No62c24.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.361,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No62c24.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.171,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No56c23.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2182562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No56c22.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No61c21.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No70c21.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2317071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ea…7ef6backed No71c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1511670.7%82 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e04…67f4backed No70c20.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.146668.2%45 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No62c19.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2150261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No59c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4712758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No69c16.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.210757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.