Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f6654bdd3d054ae2aaa89f48fa1aacfc7dcb0ec694422bd44fe09786c625fc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 26c | 355.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 226.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 193.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 188.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 34c | 156.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 138.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 118.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 108$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 103.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 103.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 22c | 100.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 76c | 93.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 92.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 78c | 92.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 86.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 85.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 79.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 21c | 79.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 21c | 75.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 65.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked No | 69c | 61.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…15b7backed No | 68c | 58.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 54.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 47.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 45.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 26c | 43.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…ad23backed Yes | 35c | 42.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 41.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 34c | 40.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 39.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 36.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 36.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 36.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 35.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 32.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 32.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 78c | 31.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 30.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed No | 66c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…717dbacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 20.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 65c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…bff5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 68c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.