Fed Rates · resolved market
Powell says "unemployment" 5+ times in FOMC statement?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84270c148b5f64580128386bbc7ff4ab33d9f4ea031af58e366f60714e0ddd12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 75c | 5,012$3,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.54 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,876$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…3216backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 77c | 1,762$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.64 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…d09dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,697$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 15c | 1,570$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 74c | 1,235$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.44 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 19c | 1,185$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,112$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…268bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 22c | 887.08$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 9c | 749.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…c092backed Yes | 20c | 702.07$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 26c | 570.71$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…fb04backed Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…a1dcbacked No | 74c | 450$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 20c | 440.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 32c | 398.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 77c | 374.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 18c | 313.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…1223backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 72c | 156.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…6a67backed Yes | 24c | 141.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 74c | 134.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 76c | 130.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…f6d8backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…e237backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…47e7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…3b80backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…455fbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…c9e5backed Yes | 39c | 51.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599b…baf1backed Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…8e63backed Yes | 49c | 29.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.