TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Enterprise Esportsof Enterprise Esports, NAVI Junior
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,140

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2276…efd0backed Enterprise Esports70c8,877$6,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,627.793177.4%24 W · 7 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e38…2a58backed Enterprise Esports72c2,777$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.564273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed NAVI Junior30c2,500$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75641734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed NAVI Junior28c2,475$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6992441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked NAVI Junior28c1,180$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.415431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked NAVI Junior6c1,177$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7513044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked NAVI Junior28c1,071$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30029733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Enterprise Esports77c1,066$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.0140945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked NAVI Junior46c1,061$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.5394361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked NAVI Junior24c1,031$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.0486747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6922…5d9cbacked NAVI Junior27c944.41$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Enterprise Esports71c897.99$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8411442.1%48 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Enterprise Esports39c871$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.2332245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed NAVI Junior30c800$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24014032.9%46 W · 94 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed NAVI Junior28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006454.7%35 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd2…0abfbacked NAVI Junior29c695.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked NAVI Junior17c692.23$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0554439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed NAVI Junior28c664.54$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.411,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed NAVI Junior38c605.56$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.351,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked Enterprise Esports44c600.7$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.716668.2%45 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaeb…92f6backed NAVI Junior29c571.72$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.083834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed NAVI Junior58c558.92$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.2632462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Enterprise Esports71c495$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.824250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed NAVI Junior55c485.03$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.7734356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked NAVI Junior58c446.43$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7468949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Enterprise Esports68c442.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7623151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a8…d2c8backed Enterprise Esports47c420$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.65442.6%23 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Enterprise Esports66c409.1$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1123732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Enterprise Esports45c390.34$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3842140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Enterprise Esports25c380.48$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.241,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked NAVI Junior40c346$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.891,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa57e…ed54backed NAVI Junior30c340$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-51.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked NAVI Junior30c335.8$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.748243.9%36 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed NAVI Junior30c333.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005836.2%21 W · 37 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa533…755fbacked NAVI Junior27c311.56$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.795759.6%34 W · 23 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed NAVI Junior30c310.73$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2217640.3%71 W · 105 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed Enterprise Esports61c307.5$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8843059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Enterprise Esports39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18353442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed Enterprise Esports65c299.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10518460.9%112 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Enterprise Esports71c294.58$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4312143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked NAVI Junior34c291.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Enterprise Esports42c288.31$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.4577744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Enterprise Esports61c270$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.952050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f87…f04ebacked NAVI Junior22c269.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.377045.7%32 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked NAVI Junior58c249.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0555348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed NAVI Junior27c231$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6819040%76 W · 114 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed NAVI Junior39c228.95$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.298158%47 W · 34 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked NAVI Junior37c209.21$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.670043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked NAVI Junior27c206.59$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.78475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+40.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Enterprise Esports68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8217654.5%96 W · 80 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Enterprise Esports36c190.28$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.785052%26 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed NAVI Junior56c186.08$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2179650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Enterprise Esports67c181.48$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.160154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Enterprise Esports45c180.19$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7533838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd6a…fdbbbacked NAVI Junior32c176.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.47356.2%41 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Enterprise Esports66c176.3$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.271,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed NAVI Junior30c174$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked NAVI Junior55c164.71$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Enterprise Esports44c164.37$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3657151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5266…c5d2backed NAVI Junior15c158$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed NAVI Junior26c157.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.661,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed NAVI Junior29c153.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4763447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed NAVI Junior60c152.9$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6549255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked NAVI Junior24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Enterprise Esports25c148.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5793049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed NAVI Junior28c135$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.88641.9%36 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb3e…9120backed NAVI Junior30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403030%9 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Enterprise Esports26c114$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3610349.5%51 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a0…3accbacked NAVI Junior17c100.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9311…e731backed Enterprise Esports48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Enterprise Esports49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5134954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Enterprise Esports52c97.87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.524032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked NAVI Junior59c97$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6613662.5%85 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked NAVI Junior58c88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3750944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Enterprise Esports27c85.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0123745.1%107 W · 130 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Enterprise Esports70c84.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.696245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked NAVI Junior37c81.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011735%41 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Enterprise Esports26c76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.242955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Enterprise Esports64c75.87$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2984838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Enterprise Esports27c73.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4615842.4%67 W · 91 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed NAVI Junior30c71.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.377959.5%47 W · 32 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed NAVI Junior30c70.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1418457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked NAVI Junior34c65.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.226747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Enterprise Esports72c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.216451.8%85 W · 79 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Enterprise Esports53c62.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3977929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Enterprise Esports49c61.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5974642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed NAVI Junior33c61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.835520%11 W · 44 L-11.5wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-57%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xea8e…debbbacked NAVI Junior25c60.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3556…3fb4backed NAVI Junior30c51.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed NAVI Junior28c51.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2311637.9%44 W · 72 L-15.5wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed NAVI Junior30c51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5220248.5%98 W · 104 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Enterprise Esports46c50.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.258454.8%46 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Enterprise Esports37c44.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2610633%35 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Enterprise Esports73c44.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.892564%16 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Enterprise Esports47c43.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3323644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed NAVI Junior36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511237.5%42 W · 70 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc987…123abacked NAVI Junior30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked NAVI Junior56c38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2820138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a49…4985backed NAVI Junior35c37.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed NAVI Junior67c36.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2915973%116 W · 43 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.